BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (-1.2%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or performance of 48.2% of BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy is greater, thus better.
• Compared with AGG (14.5%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return, or performance of 38.9% is larger, thus better.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

• The annual performance (CAGR) over 5 years of BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy is 8.2%, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (-0.2%) in the same period.
• Compared with AGG (4.6%) in the period of the last 3 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.6% is greater, thus better.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. In the securities markets, volatility is often associated with big swings in either direction. For example, when the stock market rises and falls more than one percent over a sustained period of time, it is called a 'volatile' market.'

• The 30 days standard deviation over 5 years of BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy is 7%, which is greater, thus worse compared to the benchmark AGG (6.1%) in the same period.
• Compared with AGG (6.1%) in the period of the last 3 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 6.6% is higher, thus worse.

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

• Looking at the downside deviation of 4.9% in the last 5 years of BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark AGG (4.3%)
• Compared with AGG (4.1%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside deviation of 4.4% is higher, thus worse.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (-0.45) in the period of the last 5 years, the Sharpe Ratio of 0.81 of BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy is greater, thus better.
• Looking at ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) in of 1.39 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to AGG (0.35).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

• Looking at the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 1.16 in the last 5 years of BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (-0.64)
• Looking at downside risk / excess return profile in of 2.05 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to AGG (0.52).

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

• The Downside risk index over 5 years of BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy is 4.48 , which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (9.23 ) in the same period.
• During the last 3 years, the Downside risk index is 1.54 , which is smaller, thus better than the value of 2.33 from the benchmark.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown is defined as the peak-to-trough decline of an investment during a specific period. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the peak value. The maximum drawdown can be calculated based on absolute returns, in order to identify strategies that suffer less during market downturns, such as low-volatility strategies. However, the maximum drawdown can also be calculated based on returns relative to a benchmark index, for identifying strategies that show steady outperformance over time.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (-18.1 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum DrawDown of -11 days of BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy is higher, thus better.
• During the last 3 years, the maximum reduction from previous high is -4.7 days, which is greater, thus better than the value of -7.4 days from the benchmark.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

• Looking at the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 545 days in the last 5 years of BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (1232 days)
• During the last 3 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark is 94 days, which is lower, thus better than the value of 195 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

• The average time in days below previous high water mark over 5 years of BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy is 145 days, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (607 days) in the same period.
• Compared with AGG (61 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark of 24 days is lower, thus better.