Description

The Gold-Currency Strategy II takes advantage of the historically negative correlation between gold and the U.S. dollar. It switches between the two assets based on their recent risk adjusted performance enabling the strategy to provide protection against severe gold corrections due to dollar strength. It is an excellent addition to existing equity or bond portfolios as it holds very little correlation to either.

This strategy is an update to the original GLD-USD strategy that uses inverse leveraged ETFs which are not permitted in some retirement accounts.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (137.8%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or increase in value of 111% of Gold-Currency Strategy II is lower, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the total return, or performance is 120.7%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 125.8% from the benchmark.

CAGR:

'Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business and investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period. CAGR is not an accounting term, but it is often used to describe some element of the business, for example revenue, units delivered, registered users, etc. CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic returns that can render arithmetic means irrelevant. It is particularly useful to compare growth rates from various data sets of common domain such as revenue growth of companies in the same industry.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The annual return (CAGR) over 5 years of Gold-Currency Strategy II is 16.2%, which is smaller, thus worse compared to the benchmark GLD (19%) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) is 30.3%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 31.3% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The historical 30 days volatility over 5 years of Gold-Currency Strategy II is 15.2%, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark GLD (18.8%) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the historical 30 days volatility is 18.6%, which is lower, thus better than the value of 21.3% from the benchmark.

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (13.2%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside risk of 10.8% of Gold-Currency Strategy II is smaller, thus better.
  • Looking at downside deviation in of 13.2% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to GLD (15.1%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The risk / return profile (Sharpe) over 5 years of Gold-Currency Strategy II is 0.9, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark GLD (0.88) in the same period.
  • Looking at ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) in of 1.5 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to GLD (1.35).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The downside risk / excess return profile over 5 years of Gold-Currency Strategy II is 1.26, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark GLD (1.25) in the same period.
  • Looking at downside risk / excess return profile in of 2.11 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to GLD (1.91).

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the Downside risk index of 7.81 in the last 5 years of Gold-Currency Strategy II, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark GLD (8.92 )
  • During the last 3 years, the Ulcer Index is 6.22 , which is smaller, thus better than the value of 8.14 from the benchmark.

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the maximum reduction from previous high of -19.2 days in the last 5 years of Gold-Currency Strategy II, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark GLD (-26.4 days)
  • Looking at maximum DrawDown in of -19.2 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to GLD (-26.4 days).

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (436 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 590 days of Gold-Currency Strategy II is greater, thus worse.
  • Looking at maximum days under water in of 151 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to GLD (151 days).

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the average days under water of 168 days in the last 5 years of Gold-Currency Strategy II, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark GLD (103 days)
  • Looking at average days under water in of 31 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to GLD (31 days).

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Gold-Currency Strategy II are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.