Description

The Gold-Currency Strategy II takes advantage of the historically negative correlation between gold and the U.S. dollar. It switches between the two assets based on their recent risk adjusted performance enabling the strategy to provide protection against severe gold corrections due to dollar strength. It is an excellent addition to existing equity or bond portfolios as it holds very little correlation to either.

This strategy is an update to the original GLD-USD strategy that uses inverse leveraged ETFs which are not permitted in some retirement accounts.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The total return over 5 years of Gold-Currency Strategy II is 110.9%, which is smaller, thus worse compared to the benchmark GLD (145%) in the same period.
  • Looking at total return in of 120.1% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to GLD (123.6%).

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The annual performance (CAGR) over 5 years of Gold-Currency Strategy II is 16.2%, which is smaller, thus worse compared to the benchmark GLD (19.7%) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the annual performance (CAGR) is 30.2%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 30.9% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The 30 days standard deviation over 5 years of Gold-Currency Strategy II is 15.2%, which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark GLD (18.8%) in the same period.
  • Looking at historical 30 days volatility in of 18.6% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to GLD (21.4%).

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (13.2%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside risk of 10.8% of Gold-Currency Strategy II is lower, thus better.
  • Compared with GLD (15.2%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside volatility of 13.2% is smaller, thus better.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (0.92) in the period of the last 5 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 0.9 of Gold-Currency Strategy II is lower, thus worse.
  • Looking at risk / return profile (Sharpe) in of 1.49 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to GLD (1.33).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The excess return divided by the downside deviation over 5 years of Gold-Currency Strategy II is 1.26, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark GLD (1.3) in the same period.
  • Looking at excess return divided by the downside deviation in of 2.1 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to GLD (1.87).

Ulcer:

'The ulcer index is a stock market risk measure or technical analysis indicator devised by Peter Martin in 1987, and published by him and Byron McCann in their 1989 book The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds. It's designed as a measure of volatility, but only volatility in the downward direction, i.e. the amount of drawdown or retracement occurring over a period. Other volatility measures like standard deviation treat up and down movement equally, but a trader doesn't mind upward movement, it's the downside that causes stress and stomach ulcers that the index's name suggests.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (9.06 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Ulcer Index of 7.89 of Gold-Currency Strategy II is lower, thus better.
  • Looking at Downside risk index in of 6.39 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to GLD (8.42 ).

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The maximum reduction from previous high over 5 years of Gold-Currency Strategy II is -19.2 days, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark GLD (-26.4 days) in the same period.
  • Looking at maximum DrawDown in of -19.2 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to GLD (-26.4 days).

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (436 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum days below previous high of 590 days of Gold-Currency Strategy II is larger, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum days below previous high is 160 days, which is larger, thus worse than the value of 160 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The average time in days below previous high water mark over 5 years of Gold-Currency Strategy II is 169 days, which is greater, thus worse compared to the benchmark GLD (104 days) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the average days under water is 33 days, which is larger, thus worse than the value of 32 days from the benchmark.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Gold-Currency Strategy II are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.