Description

The Gold-Currency Strategy II takes advantage of the historically negative correlation between gold and the U.S. dollar. It switches between the two assets based on their recent risk adjusted performance enabling the strategy to provide protection against severe gold corrections due to dollar strength. It is an excellent addition to existing equity or bond portfolios as it holds very little correlation to either.

This strategy is an update to the original GLD-USD strategy that uses inverse leveraged ETFs which are not permitted in some retirement accounts.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The total return, or increase in value over 5 years of Gold-Currency Strategy II is 111.6%, which is smaller, thus worse compared to the benchmark GLD (117.5%) in the same period.
  • Looking at total return, or increase in value in of 121.3% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to GLD (102.9%).

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (16.9%) in the period of the last 5 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.2% of Gold-Currency Strategy II is lower, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the annual performance (CAGR) is 30.5%, which is larger, thus better than the value of 26.7% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The historical 30 days volatility over 5 years of Gold-Currency Strategy II is 15.2%, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark GLD (18.4%) in the same period.
  • Compared with GLD (20.6%) in the period of the last 3 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 18.6% is smaller, thus better.

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (13%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside risk of 10.8% of Gold-Currency Strategy II is smaller, thus better.
  • Compared with GLD (14.7%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside deviation of 13.2% is lower, thus better.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) over 5 years of Gold-Currency Strategy II is 0.91, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark GLD (0.78) in the same period.
  • Looking at ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) in of 1.51 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to GLD (1.17).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (1.1) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside risk / excess return profile of 1.27 of Gold-Currency Strategy II is greater, thus better.
  • Compared with GLD (1.64) in the period of the last 3 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 2.12 is greater, thus better.

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The Downside risk index over 5 years of Gold-Currency Strategy II is 7.48 , which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark GLD (8.25 ) in the same period.
  • Looking at Ulcer Ratio in of 5.49 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to GLD (6.9 ).

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (-26.4 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley of -19.2 days of Gold-Currency Strategy II is greater, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum reduction from previous high is -19.2 days, which is larger, thus better than the value of -26.4 days from the benchmark.

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 590 days in the last 5 years of Gold-Currency Strategy II, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark GLD (436 days)
  • Looking at maximum days below previous high in of 116 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to GLD (116 days).

AveDuration:

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the average days under water of 166 days in the last 5 years of Gold-Currency Strategy II, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark GLD (100 days)
  • Compared with GLD (26 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average days below previous high of 24 days is smaller, thus better.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Gold-Currency Strategy II are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.