Description

The Gold-Currency Strategy II takes advantage of the historically negative correlation between gold and the U.S. dollar. It switches between the two assets based on their recent risk adjusted performance enabling the strategy to provide protection against severe gold corrections due to dollar strength. It is an excellent addition to existing equity or bond portfolios as it holds very little correlation to either.

This strategy is an update to the original GLD-USD strategy that uses inverse leveraged ETFs which are not permitted in some retirement accounts.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the total return of 116.8% in the last 5 years of Gold-Currency Strategy II, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark GLD (155.5%)
  • Looking at total return, or increase in value in of 115.9% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to GLD (133.1%).

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (20.7%) in the period of the last 5 years, the annual performance (CAGR) of 16.8% of Gold-Currency Strategy II is smaller, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the annual performance (CAGR) is 29.5%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 32.8% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. In the securities markets, volatility is often associated with big swings in either direction. For example, when the stock market rises and falls more than one percent over a sustained period of time, it is called a 'volatile' market.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (17.8%) in the period of the last 5 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 15.1% of Gold-Currency Strategy II is lower, thus better.
  • Compared with GLD (19.7%) in the period of the last 3 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 18.8% is smaller, thus better.

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The downside risk over 5 years of Gold-Currency Strategy II is 10.8%, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark GLD (12.5%) in the same period.
  • Looking at downside deviation in of 13.3% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to GLD (13.9%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 0.95 in the last 5 years of Gold-Currency Strategy II, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark GLD (1.02)
  • Compared with GLD (1.54) in the period of the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 1.44 is smaller, thus worse.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (1.46) in the period of the last 5 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 1.33 of Gold-Currency Strategy II is lower, thus worse.
  • Looking at ratio of annual return and downside deviation in of 2.03 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to GLD (2.19).

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The Downside risk index over 5 years of Gold-Currency Strategy II is 6.81 , which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark GLD (7.32 ) in the same period.
  • Looking at Downside risk index in of 4.49 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to GLD (4.65 ).

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the maximum reduction from previous high of -19.2 days in the last 5 years of Gold-Currency Strategy II, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark GLD (-21 days)
  • Looking at maximum reduction from previous high in of -19.2 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to GLD (-19.2 days).

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The maximum days under water over 5 years of Gold-Currency Strategy II is 590 days, which is larger, thus worse compared to the benchmark GLD (436 days) in the same period.
  • Compared with GLD (145 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum days under water of 227 days is larger, thus worse.

AveDuration:

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (108 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark of 165 days of Gold-Currency Strategy II is greater, thus worse.
  • Looking at average time in days below previous high water mark in of 51 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to GLD (31 days).

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Gold-Currency Strategy II are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.