Description

The Gold-Currency Strategy II takes advantage of the historically negative correlation between gold and the U.S. dollar. It switches between the two assets based on their recent risk adjusted performance enabling the strategy to provide protection against severe gold corrections due to dollar strength. It is an excellent addition to existing equity or bond portfolios as it holds very little correlation to either.

This strategy is an update to the original GLD-USD strategy that uses inverse leveraged ETFs which are not permitted in some retirement accounts.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The total return, or increase in value over 5 years of Gold-Currency Strategy II is 117.4%, which is smaller, thus worse compared to the benchmark GLD (165.1%) in the same period.
  • Looking at total return, or performance in of 117% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to GLD (134.4%).

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (21.6%) in the period of the last 5 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.9% of Gold-Currency Strategy II is smaller, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) is 29.6%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 33% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (17.8%) in the period of the last 5 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 15% of Gold-Currency Strategy II is lower, thus better.
  • Compared with GLD (19.7%) in the period of the last 3 years, the volatility of 18.7% is lower, thus better.

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The downside volatility over 5 years of Gold-Currency Strategy II is 10.7%, which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark GLD (12.4%) in the same period.
  • Looking at downside deviation in of 13.2% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to GLD (13.8%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The Sharpe Ratio over 5 years of Gold-Currency Strategy II is 0.96, which is smaller, thus worse compared to the benchmark GLD (1.08) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the Sharpe Ratio is 1.45, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 1.55 from the benchmark.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (1.54) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside risk / excess return profile of 1.35 of Gold-Currency Strategy II is lower, thus worse.
  • Compared with GLD (2.21) in the period of the last 3 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 2.05 is lower, thus worse.

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the Downside risk index of 6.7 in the last 5 years of Gold-Currency Strategy II, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark GLD (7.22 )
  • Compared with GLD (4.4 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Ulcer Index of 4.23 is smaller, thus better.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (-21 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum DrawDown of -19.2 days of Gold-Currency Strategy II is greater, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley is -19.2 days, which is higher, thus better than the value of -19.2 days from the benchmark.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the maximum days below previous high of 590 days in the last 5 years of Gold-Currency Strategy II, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark GLD (436 days)
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum days under water is 227 days, which is larger, thus worse than the value of 145 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (108 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average days below previous high of 164 days of Gold-Currency Strategy II is higher, thus worse.
  • Compared with GLD (30 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average days under water of 50 days is larger, thus worse.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Gold-Currency Strategy II are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.