Description

The Gold-Currency Strategy II takes advantage of the historically negative correlation between gold and the U.S. dollar. It switches between the two assets based on their recent risk adjusted performance enabling the strategy to provide protection against severe gold corrections due to dollar strength. It is an excellent addition to existing equity or bond portfolios as it holds very little correlation to either.

This strategy is an update to the original GLD-USD strategy that uses inverse leveraged ETFs which are not permitted in some retirement accounts.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the total return, or increase in value of 111.1% in the last 5 years of Gold-Currency Strategy II, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark GLD (140.3%)
  • Looking at total return, or increase in value in of 121.1% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to GLD (129.5%).

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) over 5 years of Gold-Currency Strategy II is 16.2%, which is smaller, thus worse compared to the benchmark GLD (19.2%) in the same period.
  • Looking at compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) in of 30.4% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to GLD (32.1%).

Volatility:

'Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. In the securities markets, volatility is often associated with big swings in either direction. For example, when the stock market rises and falls more than one percent over a sustained period of time, it is called a 'volatile' market.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (18.7%) in the period of the last 5 years, the volatility of 15.2% of Gold-Currency Strategy II is lower, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the 30 days standard deviation is 18.6%, which is lower, thus better than the value of 21.2% from the benchmark.

DownVol:

'Downside risk is the financial risk associated with losses. That is, it is the risk of the actual return being below the expected return, or the uncertainty about the magnitude of that difference. Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The downside volatility over 5 years of Gold-Currency Strategy II is 10.8%, which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark GLD (13.2%) in the same period.
  • Compared with GLD (15%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside risk of 13.2% is smaller, thus better.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The risk / return profile (Sharpe) over 5 years of Gold-Currency Strategy II is 0.9, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark GLD (0.89) in the same period.
  • Compared with GLD (1.39) in the period of the last 3 years, the Sharpe Ratio of 1.5 is higher, thus better.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (1.27) in the period of the last 5 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 1.26 of Gold-Currency Strategy II is smaller, thus worse.
  • Compared with GLD (1.97) in the period of the last 3 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 2.12 is greater, thus better.

Ulcer:

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The Ulcer Ratio over 5 years of Gold-Currency Strategy II is 7.77 , which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark GLD (8.85 ) in the same period.
  • Looking at Ulcer Ratio in of 6.12 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to GLD (8.01 ).

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The maximum drop from peak to valley over 5 years of Gold-Currency Strategy II is -19.2 days, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark GLD (-26.4 days) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum DrawDown is -19.2 days, which is greater, thus better than the value of -26.4 days from the benchmark.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (436 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum days below previous high of 590 days of Gold-Currency Strategy II is greater, thus worse.
  • Looking at maximum time in days below previous high water mark in of 146 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to GLD (146 days).

AveDuration:

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (102 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average days under water of 168 days of Gold-Currency Strategy II is greater, thus worse.
  • Looking at average days under water in of 30 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to GLD (30 days).

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Gold-Currency Strategy II are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.