Call me crazy, but I think interest rates will never rise again and will only go lower perhaps forever. It wouldn’t surprise me if the 30 year yield is minus 2 percent by the end of 2022 and minus 5% by the end of the decade. It’s just numbers.
I believe that the stock market has become entrapped in almost everyone’s lives now than it was as late as the mid 90’s. The shift to 401ks is the reason and we can’t let those balances collapse.
If rates rise, the stock market will fall. We can’t have that happen. Only stocks are allowed to rise forever. Thus rates must fall forever. The FED is in too deep.
If rates fell to 0%, I think TLT would rise another 30% or so from today’s levels. TMF almost 80%.
This is just my opinion. Would be very interested to hear LI take on it.