Description

This strategy selects the top three performers from our core strategies, based on the most recent 6 month performance, and allocates one third to each of them.

Note that very often the strategy will invest in the more aggressive of our strategies, which might not be suitable for all investors. You can create your version of this strategy with our Portfolio Builder. Simply select the top 2, 3, or 4 strategies and assign equal weights to each or adjust your allocations for your risk level. You will need to manually review and update the top performers periodically.

Methodology & Assets

All of our current strategies are included in the algorithm.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The total return, or performance over 5 years of Top 3 Strategies is 126.3%, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (100.3%) in the same period.
  • Looking at total return, or increase in value in of 90.2% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to SPY (77.1%).

CAGR:

'Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business and investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period. CAGR is not an accounting term, but it is often used to describe some element of the business, for example revenue, units delivered, registered users, etc. CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic returns that can render arithmetic means irrelevant. It is particularly useful to compare growth rates from various data sets of common domain such as revenue growth of companies in the same industry.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.8% in the last 5 years of Top 3 Strategies, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (15%)
  • Looking at compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) in of 24% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to SPY (21.1%).

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (17%) in the period of the last 5 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 9.8% of Top 3 Strategies is smaller, thus better.
  • Looking at 30 days standard deviation in of 10.4% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to SPY (15.2%).

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the downside deviation of 6.7% in the last 5 years of Top 3 Strategies, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (11.7%)
  • Compared with SPY (10.2%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside volatility of 7.1% is lower, thus better.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.73) in the period of the last 5 years, the Sharpe Ratio of 1.57 of Top 3 Strategies is greater, thus better.
  • Looking at ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) in of 2.07 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to SPY (1.23).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (1.06) in the period of the last 5 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 2.27 of Top 3 Strategies is higher, thus better.
  • Looking at ratio of annual return and downside deviation in of 3.05 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to SPY (1.83).

Ulcer:

'The ulcer index is a stock market risk measure or technical analysis indicator devised by Peter Martin in 1987, and published by him and Byron McCann in their 1989 book The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds. It's designed as a measure of volatility, but only volatility in the downward direction, i.e. the amount of drawdown or retracement occurring over a period. Other volatility measures like standard deviation treat up and down movement equally, but a trader doesn't mind upward movement, it's the downside that causes stress and stomach ulcers that the index's name suggests.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The Ulcer Ratio over 5 years of Top 3 Strategies is 3.94 , which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (8.42 ) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (3.51 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Ulcer Index of 1.77 is lower, thus better.

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (-24.5 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum DrawDown of -11 days of Top 3 Strategies is greater, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum DrawDown is -6 days, which is higher, thus better than the value of -18.8 days from the benchmark.

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (488 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum days below previous high of 370 days of Top 3 Strategies is smaller, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum days under water is 74 days, which is smaller, thus better than the value of 87 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The average time in days below previous high water mark over 5 years of Top 3 Strategies is 76 days, which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (120 days) in the same period.
  • Looking at average days below previous high in of 17 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to SPY (21 days).

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Top 3 Strategies are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.