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  • #52424
    reuptake
    Participant

    [quote quote=52423]Well….been a very busy month…..I am not liking the hedges at all at this point…When Stocks, Gold and Bonds all go down at the same time, that is not good…Will it last?? probably not, but I decided to utilize a different hedge for now….Cash….

    [/quote]

    Yesterday was a carnage to my account. But I’m not making any changes until end of the month. Then I’ll make my decision.

    #52563
    Patrick
    Keymaster

    Rather than cash, I recommend GSY or MINT so you can at least earn 1-2% yield with very little risk.

    #52565
    Mark Faust
    Participant

    [quote quote=52563]Rather than cash, I recommend GSY or MINT so you can at least earn 1-2% yield with very little risk.

    [/quote]

    Thx Patrick…I will take a look

    #52675
    reuptake
    Participant

    I’ve tried not to look at my portfolio value everyday, but end of month is near, so I’m preparing to rebalance.

    I went abroad for two weeks of May, so I had to rebalance bit earlier. It was very, very unlucky. Only now I learned, that for my portfolio of strategies hedge for May would be TLT if rebalanced last day of April. Unfortunately, when I did rebalancing it was mostly GLD, and GLD performed significantly worse than TLT. On May 15th portfolio value went down nearly 2% (mostly on GLD weakness).

    I’ll probably will continue with similar portfolio next month.

    #52681
    trr
    Participant

    My selections are somewhat similar. I’d jettison World Top-4 and go for more GMRS instead, for the sake of simplicity and because I think it improves performance a little.

    Personally, I’m sticking with the treasuries (or gold, as the case may be). It’s a difficult call. A case for treasuries was made in the Economist a couple of days ago — https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2018/05/26/why-it-makes-sense-to-invest-in-treasury-bonds
    But I’m also influenced by the fact that elsewhere in my portfolio (non-LI stuff) I make less use of treasuries.

    #53094
    reuptake
    Participant

    My portfolio for June is very similar to May, with only slight changes (less than 2% per strategy).

    But I have a question for you: could you share your portfolio performance YTD?

    Mine is -4.14% (measured by TWR method, so cash flow into/out of account doesn’t matter).

    I have to say I’m disappointed. I know the market is not easy, but still I feel my portfolio is underperforming. And I haven’t had MYRS in portfolio in February, when it took a big hit.

    There are several benchmarks I could compare. The first on is 60/40 portfolio. YTD is +1.7%. I’m also following about 40 strategies benchmarked on AllocateSmartly website. Of all of them only one has worse performance that my portfolio. Only 5 is worse than -0.5%, most shows positive performance. While I understand that those strategies are different than used here, and most of them target lower risk, the difference is striking.

    And finally, discrepancy I’m most curious about: difference between my actual results and performance reported by QT or Portfolio Builder on LI website.

    First thing is that those two tools give very different numbers. According to QT the performance of my last portfolio* is +4.02%. Portfolio Builder on website gives +2.25%. This is a pretty big difference if you ask me. But then again, those two are positive numbers.

    * I’m very well aware that my portfolio was changed each month, so benchmarking July allocation will give different results than real one. But I don’t think the differences explain such big difference. Eg. if I use March allocation, it would be +2.04% (QT)/ +0.48% (PB on LI website). Note again the difference between those two, and big difference between my performance (-4%)

    ** I’m also aware that I’ve rebalanced portfolio not exactly on close on the last day of the month, and in one case it was 3 trading days earlier (it might give also a different composition of portfolio for next month). Still the difference is too big.

    #53106
    rikder
    Participant

    My portfolio YTD is -5.4% I was in MYRS and UIS3x in Jan. and Feb., so the poor performance is to be expected. Beginning in March I moved to LI strategy of strategies. However understanding the allocations for it and getting used to using QT has been confusing. Day to day on QT the 3 strategies it chooses and the hedges it uses change quite a bit. The consolidated allocations function on QT either isn’t reliable or I’m not understanding it correctly. I always compare allocations to my manual calculations using the emailed signals at the end of the month just to be sure then rebalance about 2-3 days into the new month. I think some of this and just overall increase in market volatility can explain discrepancies between backtest results and actual results. I also short TMV and so far this year going long TMF would have been the better choice based on borrow costs and how those funds have moved month to month. Someone smarter than me could explain why that is.

    In 2017 I outperformed the backtest portfolio on the online portfolio builder by about 7%, in Jan.-Feb. 2018 I underperformed it by about 2%. The same thing happened to me in Aug-Sept 2015, the days I chose to execute the signals caused me to take a much larger hit than the backtests indicated. But I’ve been trading long enough and enough strategies to know that backtests really just give you a general picture of a strategy, you shouldn’t expect it to be exact. That being said I do think it is helpful to drill down into the detail of your trades to understand how the discrepancy occurred. Doing that and learning from my experience in Aug. 2015 really helped me in February.

    #53497
    reuptake
    Participant

    Due to regulatory problems I’m no longer able to trade LI strategies. I’ve closed all my positions. This month was bad, again, my drawdown is > 6%. I will have a month (or more) sitting in 100% cash to consider what to do next.

    #53510
    Mark Faust
    Participant

    Good luck reuptake…I am also doing some evaluating of my current situations to see what is best for me going forward…ttyl

    Bama

    [quote quote=53497]Due to regulatory problems I’m no longer able to trade LI strategies. I’ve closed all my positions. This month was bad, again, my drawdown is > 6%. I will have a month (or more) sitting in 100% cash to consider what to do next.

    [/quote]

    #53609
    Richard
    Participant

    reuptake — Your performance insights have been very helpful over recent months, many thank for sharing your experience.

    Good luck with your future portfolio.

    #53610
    Richard
    Participant

    reuptake — Your performance insights have been very helpful over recent months, many thank for sharing your experience.

    Good luck with your future portfolio.

    #54661
    reuptake
    Participant

    Just to update: I was able to resume trading in July. However, I’m not using LI strategies as of now. What are your results YTD?

    #54875
    Tony Walker
    Participant

    I have been a full time trader for many years but only started with LI strategies live in May2017 after enjoying reading some posted content. Took a while to find a portfolio balance in QT that I felt comfortable with and spent quite some time switching around parameters for the balance of 2017 not really finding my comfort zone May-Dec17 I was able to post 6.5% which was well below what I was returning on other non LI strategies and seemed low for the risk I took.

    For 2018 I came back to some of the offered strategies and settled on a 50/50 mix of Nasdaq100 hedged and 3*UIS. Although I do not stick strictly to the month end rebalance, often making intra month adjustments, this ytd it has outperformed every other portfolio, at 11.4%, including monthly balanced TAA (~7%) and short term automated price action driven models (~8%). I also trade crypto which was absolutely wonderful last year (550%) but a train wreck this YTD (-66%).

    Over the portfolio I keep my worse case back test at < 10% dd but I do sustain 15-20% vol with the LI models in the back test so just keep their allocation at appropriate levels. I rebalance between programs as well as within them.
    I appreciate the continued development of QT and prefer to work there rather than the online tools.

    I also ran into the compliance issues earlier this year when some US ETF’s suddenly became unavailable in Europe. The initial solution was to use CFD’s which could be executed at the identical price and were available without issue (these regs make little sense) and subsequently by registering as a professional investor via a couple of forms from compliance departments which gave me back full access to all products.

Viewing 13 posts - 61 through 73 (of 73 total)
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