How to replace EDV by TLT example

How to replace EDV by TLT example2017-03-03T15:27:10+00:00
  • Author
    Posts
  • Alexander Horn
    Keymaster
    Post count: 386

    Replacing EDV by TLT as suggested in some discussions in the forum is neither intuitive nor easy to calculate across different strategies. We thought about making an excel sheet available including all strategies, but now rather opted to kick-off what we call our “gold version”, where the site will allow you to choose weightings by strategy and options like the EDV/TLT replacement and then do the math for you.. Will take some weeks, but hope this helps medium term..

    Here an example in Excel for the meanwhile. Look at the formulas on how to “rescale” the capital requirement. Keep in mind that we consider EDV like a ‘leveraged’ TLT, so you either need more capital, or rescale the overall position to maintain the “mix”. This ‘leveraged’ is technically not quite right, but it demonstrates the effect you’ll have when replacing EDV by TLT due to ther different duration and coupon.

  • Alex Samo
    Participant
    Post count: 1

    What are the scenarios where you would want to use TLT instead of EDV to invest in treasuries? Can you describe the difference between the two and when you would use one vs the other? Thank you

  • Frank Grossmann
    Moderator
    Post count: 161

    There is not much difference. If you compare the charts, then you see, that EDV is like a 1.5x leveraged TLT ETF. So if you don’t have much cash left in your trading account, then EDV is the way to go. However if you have enough cash, then I would replace EDV with TLT. TLT is much more liquid and has a 1 cent spread compared to 20 cent for EDV. For a strategy like GMRS this means about 1% annual performance difference. The difference is not so big, because normally you change the EDV allocation only by an average 10%.
    Anyway if you are subscribed to more than one strategy, it makes sense to only use one hedging ETF. Best would be TLT.

  • Alexander Horn
    Keymaster
    Post count: 386

    Stephen,

    I’ve not done any specific backtest to see the comparison in results, but here the issues I see based on this comparison:

    – TLO maturity is +10yrs, while TLT is +20 years. So the “emergency break” functionality of changes in correlation works less. See Franks GMR whitepaper for more details.
    – The avg volume of about 50k shares is very low compared to TLT (6m) or even EDV (110k), so while you save commissions, you might end up paying more in spreads and slippage if you manage a big account.

    See correlation profile below:

    TLO-SPY

    TLT-SPY

  • STEPHEN
    Member
    Post count: 22

    Is TLO an acceptable substitute for TLT? TLO is commission-free at my broker whereas TLT is not.

    For the last three months TLT v. TLO:

    Total Return 7.2% v. 6.9%
    CAGR = 32.2% v. 30.8%
    Volatility = 11.4% v. 10.3%

    Thank you.

  • STEPHEN
    Member
    Post count: 22

    Thank you for your detailed reply. As the commission is negligible, and in consideration of your explanation, I will stay with TLT.

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