Is it good to hold treasuries as a long term hedge (TMV hedge) in an environment of rising yields?

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Is it good to hold treasuries as a long term hedge (TMV hedge) in an environment of rising yields? 2017-03-03T15:27:22+00:00
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  • Frank Grossmann
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    Post count: 151

    The basic rule for Treasuries is that Treasuries go down if yields go up. So, the question is, if it is good to hold treasuries as a long term hedge in an environment of rising yields?

    If we compare 30 year Treasury yields with TMV, then we see that long duration Treasury yields can go quite up without realizing big losses for TMV.

    On the chart you see the 30 year Treasury yield curve which is 23.6% up since about 2 years. This is 0.8% or 0.4% per year. So it is about 0.4% of increase of Treasury yield per year which TMV can support without generating a loss.

    Blog9

     

    In past 23 years the 30 year Treasury yields came down from 8% to 3.7%. This is a change rate of 0.19% per year. So, if the yield goes up, 0.2% per year from now on, the we have absolutely no problem with rising yields. Even the double increase of 0.4% would be still ok.

    Blog10

     

    A lot of the future tapering has been probably already priced in with the increased yields by the end of 2013. The yields increase of longer duration Treasuries also is normally slower than for shorter term Treasuries.

    So the conclusion is, that a short position of TMV is one of the cheapest and best ways to hedge volatility of your stock market investment even if yields may increase in the next years.

    Best regards
    Frank Grossmann

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