- A US sector rotation meta strategy combining dynamically 5 different sector strategies based on SPDR ETF The following paper will explain how to build a U.S. sector rotation strategy which allocates dynamically between 4 different long US sector rotation strategies and one short US sector rotation strategy. This strategy is therefore different from our Global Sector Rotation strategy, as it only employs US sectors. Due to low correlation of these sector rotations, the combination creates an ETF sector rotation model with considerably higher Sharpe values. The addition of the negatively correlated short sector rotation model significantly reduces volatility and drawdowns during difficult market periods. The chart shows the portfolio performance (black) compared with the S&P500 index (SPY ETF – red). The result is a meta sector ETF rotation strategy which performed well since 2000 in the backtests. The Sector rotation strategy produced an average yearly profit of 12.8% (SPY 5.1%) and a Sharpe ratio of 1.16 (SPY 0.25). Maximum drawdown was only 17% (SPY ETF 55%). So, the sector rotation model performed about 4x better than the S&P500. What makes this sector etf rotation strategy interesting is that it does not rely on either treasuries or bonds to balance out and hedge in times of market stress. It uses the short US ETF sector strategy as a hedge instead. The hedging mechanism is purely “short equity” and unrelated to whether interest rates rise, a common concern when holding bonds in a portfolio. The U.S. Sector ETF’s - here SPDR ETF U.S. sector ETFs, based on the Dow Jones U.S. Industry Indices, have been within the first ETFs on the U.S. market. There are sector ETF available from SPDR, Vanguard, Schwab, iShares. There are also European versions of these sector ETFs as well. These 10 Dow Jones U.S. Industry sectors [...]
In the follow up to our webinar about how to compose top performing ETFs strategies among the QuantTrader community last weekend, we received many interesting questions and ideas to follow up. One question in particular I´d like to share in a post, as it involves all our “All Strategies” subscribers.John L. asks: “Using a simple meta strategy by choosing the top two strategies from the previous month (from the monthly newsletter), and investing in them the next month (repeating that each month). I wonder if that can be backtested and compared to past 3 months or a static meta strategy. Perhaps comparing the top 2 each month strategy to the choosing the top 2 from the last 3 months. And comparing the top 2 each month or 3 months to a static strategy of the top 2 - 4 over the full backtest period or past 5 or 10 years.”So in other words, what´s the best way to pick from the Top Performing ETFs Strategies of the last months, and allocate equal amount of money among them? We publish the performance of all our strategies monthly in a handy ranking table, so it´s easy to pick each month the best performers of the last months, and repeat this throughout the year.The idea is appealing, as it is an enhancement from our Portfolio Builder Approach, where we apply modern portfolio theory to assemble a fixed weighting portfolio based on the historical performance and co-variance between the strategies. By modifying this to a momentum style “strategy picking” of top performing ETFs strategies we react to changes in the market and therefore overcome one of the critiques MPT receives frequently.Top Performing ETFs Strategies in one PortfolioI modelled this quickly in QuantTrader, following the “Strategy of Strategies” approach we introduced in QuantTrader in the last [...]
On Saturday February 11, 2017 the QuantTrader Community of Logical Invest hosted their first interactive Webinar to explore the functionalities of the software and exchange on tips for building and backtesting high-performing ETF rotation momentum strategies for retirement and savings accounts. Background of QUANTtrader QUANTtrader is a swiss-made software tool used to develop, backtest and implement rules-based ETF Rotation investment strategies. Since it is built by a trader and long-time investor rather than by a developer, QuantTrader’s main strength is in building medium to long term investment portfolios that are diverse, adaptive and can control risk. All this without writing a single line of code. The software comes per-populated with all strategies currently run by Logical Invest. These are strategies that have been successfully running “live” for 1-3 years as of February 2017, so you can actually track past performance. You can customize, tweak existing or build your own strategies. Live Recording of the Session - 2 hours in-depth review on ETF Rotation Momentum Strategies Agenda: How to get started? File Management & Main functionalities Benefit of QuantTrader Dynamic Allocation vs. Online Portfolio Builder Markowitz Modern Portfolio Theory Ranking Algorithms and Strategy Parameters Optimization routine and how to avoid over optimization Extending backtests with synthetic tickers Consideration for combining strategies into MetaStrategies Showing off – Some of the best strategies and portfolios so far Free 30 days trial – Try it out now! Interested in giving it a try? Build your own high performing Portfolio for savings or retirement account, most IRA and 401k plans are supported. No credit card or PayPal needed, register now. To learn more about building your ETF Rotation Momentum strategy with QuantTrader see here. A good fit for Advisors and money managers using ETF Rotation Momentum Strategies In many ways, QT is a good fit for [...]
Logical Invest partners with The Estate Planners Group to offer investment strategies as Separate Managed Accounts
We analyse one of the Fidelity Freedom Target Date Funds (FFFDX) versus a portfolio of ETF rotation strategies - The findings will surprise you! This is a guest post by Richard Manley, first published on Richard´s Corner, the Logical Invest User Community: Defined contribution retirement plan using target date funds There’s no shortage of challenges facing working people in these days. In addition to job outsourcing and the offshoring whole operations, inflation/deflation and zero interest rates on savings, most workers who have a retirement plan have one that’s called a “defined contribution plan”, in the US in many cases it’s also called a 401K. In such a plan, a participant contributes before-tax funds, often matched to some degree by the employer, into an account that is intended to accrue and grow until retirement age when it can be distributed over one’s retirement lifetime. This kind of plan of course puts the responsibility and burden of making wise investment choices on the individual. Most working folks are not trained in finance or security selection or portfolio construction and are thus left to rely on their own uninformed devices or advice from financial gurus in the media or in newsletters or cable TV talking heads, or merely to reactionary emotions that attend to most of us during extreme financial events. The U.S Dept. of Labor’s new “Fiduciary Rule” will take effect in April, but what practical effect this may have on individual’s specific investment actions under defined contribution plans remains to be seen. As a retirement plan investor, I’ve experienced all these pitfalls and more while I’ve tried to save enough to comfortably retire someday. A coherent approach to managing my modest retirement assets was clearly lacking and as a result I found myself thrashing my account to respond to the [...]
Happy new year –and let´s start it set-up for success with some Markowitz Modern Portfolio Theory! As previously announced, we´re updating our Portfolio Builder Optimization periodically, both in the Online and Offline Version. Updated Portfolio Builder Optimization for 2017 employing Markowitz Modern Portfolio Theory Why that? Recall the Portfolio Builder is using a Markowitz Modern Portfolio Theory approach, that is, we´re using past returns, volatilities and co-variances to determine an optimum fixed-weight allocation among our different strategies under certain rules: Either to Maximize the Sharpe Ratio (Risk/Return), target a volatility level one feels comfortable with, or to limit historical drawdown in the expectation this will also hold true for the future. Using Markowitz Modern Portfolio Theory While full-blood Markowitz aficionados will now probably feel the urgent need to stone us to death, yes, same to some other peers in the industry our approach is dynamic and we do not feel the past is set in .. hmm.. stone! As such, we need to update our Portfolio Builder Optimization periodically based on the most recent returns, volatilities and co-variances of and between our strategies. As the overall optimization is based on data from the past 8 years and we´re only adding the last quarter of data the changes are relatively small as you can see in the following. 2016 results of our 10 Portfolios for everybody But before going into the allocations for 2017, how was the performance of the 10 “pre-configured” Portfolio´s during 2016? Results using our Online Portfolio Builder are as follows: But overall with all Portfolios in the double-digit area, six of ten Portfolios topping 20% in returns and all but the minimum Volatility Portfolio exceeding the 12% return of the S&P 500, the conclusion of a partly bumpy year with many surprises is excellent. It pays out [...]
Intelligent Algorithms run two prallel sub-strategies. Meta- layer chooses between the two sub-strategies based on current market conditions. Variable allocation to Treasuries provides protection from large drawdowns.This strategy is a good fit for investors that want to invest intelligently in the U.S. equity market as well as for stock-pickers looking for a rules-based growth strategy. The strategy can also complement our existing strategies and can work well with our more conservative strategies like BRS (bond rotation), the BUG or with non-U.S. equity strategies like World Top 4.
Diversification is a cornerstone to successful investing. In simple form, when measurably diverse assets are combined in a portfolio, the investors portfolio risks are reduced without any sacrifice of returns. This is a rare “free lunch”, it is well accepted part of modern financial portfolios, and to stay financially healthy it is important not to skip lunch. When one asset is going down while the other is going up, the portfolios risk is reduced without the normal penalty of risk/return trade-offs. We take advantage of that when our systems dynamically blend things like the S&P 500 and treasury bonds, which often exhibit negative correlation to each other (which is ideal).Applying Portfolio Diversification to Strategies: Our subscribers can take this take a step further. Our investing algorithms take on a blend of the properties of their underlying assets combined with the “alpha” edges from the investing rules. The returns of each investing strategy should be thought of as an asset, which are different and unique from the underlying holdings. So holding a portfolio of strategies functions much like holding a portfolio of assets. To evaluate the risk profile of the strategy, we examine the history of the returns of those strategies, much like when holding a basket of stocks the historical returns of each stock would be evaluated.
A hedge is always an investment which is negatively correlated to the main investment. When the main investment goes down, the hedge should go up and if the main investment goes up, then the hedge normally goes down. It is clear, that we like the first, which is to reduce the draw downs with a hedge, but not to reduce the gains. If you have a stock portfolio, then the main hedge possibilities are: A VIX ETF like VXX or a VIX Future. These have nearly a -1 correlation. An inverse ETF on a index like SH which is the inverse of the S&P 500 SPY ETF Precious metals like GLD or SLV Treasuries A lot of people use 1) and 2) to hedge their positions. This may probably make sense if you have a big stock portfolio, and you can not sell everything instantly in case of a market crash. These two must be perfectly timed. I do not think it makes sense to use them as a hedge for longer periods because the VXX ETF has an extremely strong down trend of about 5-10% per month. This is a very effective but also very expensive hedge. Such a hedge will ruin the performance of your portfolio if you keep it longer then one or two weeks. Same with SH. Because the S&P 500 has a long term up trend of about 8%, you will lose about these 8% per year if you use SH as a long term hedge. Precious metals 3) are much better. They are a safe haven investment. They normally have an inverse correlation to the stock market in times of trouble and on the longer term they should go up at least because of inflation. Gold and Silver are today priced about at their [...]
Update January 2017: The recent performance of investing in volatility can be seen here. You are probably wondering how we could achieve yearly performances of more than 50% with some of our rotation strategies. The reason is that the Maximum Yield Rotation Strategy and the Global Market Rotation Enhanced Strategy are investing in inverse volatility. Invest in inverse Volatility So, here are now some facts to show you why I like inverse volatility so much. In this chart you see the performance of the ZIV mid-term inverse volatility ETF compared to some other global market ETF from our rotation strategy. The ZIV performance of 76% for the last 12 month was just incredible. In the next chart you see a comparison of the VIX volatility index compared to the ZIV performance. ZIV has a inverse relation to the VIX index. This means that ZIV goes down when volatility or VIX goes up. For the 1 year period VIX is more or less the same (+0.19%). The VIX index is now at 15.6%. So, why did ZIV go up so much, when the VIX index is unchanged? This is because of the strong contango of the VIX mid-term futures of which the ZIV ETF is composed. If I calculate, then I get an average monthly performance of 4.8% (=12. root of 1.76), during the last 12 month, due to the strong contango of the VIX futures which track volatility. At the moment the monthly "roll yield" of ZIV is a little bit lower, but it is still about 3% per month. Now, if you look at the ZIV performance you see that ZIV only made 0.69% since April 12. Why this??? If you look at the VIX Index, you see that during the same period, it went up by almost 30%. [...]