Moderate Risk Portfolio

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

• Looking at the total return of 110.6% in the last 5 years of Moderate Risk Portfolio, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (85%)
• Looking at total return, or increase in value in of 24.7% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to SPY (24.7%).

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (13.1%) in the period of the last 5 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.1% of Moderate Risk Portfolio is higher, thus better.
• Compared with SPY (7.6%) in the period of the last 3 years, the annual return (CAGR) of 7.6% is greater, thus better.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

• The 30 days standard deviation over 5 years of Moderate Risk Portfolio is 9.3%, which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (20.9%) in the same period.
• Compared with SPY (17.3%) in the period of the last 3 years, the volatility of 7.7% is smaller, thus better.

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

• The downside risk over 5 years of Moderate Risk Portfolio is 6.6%, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (15%) in the same period.
• Looking at downside risk in of 5.4% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to SPY (12.1%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

• Looking at the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 1.46 in the last 5 years of Moderate Risk Portfolio, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.51)
• During the last 3 years, the Sharpe Ratio is 0.67, which is higher, thus better than the value of 0.3 from the benchmark.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

• The excess return divided by the downside deviation over 5 years of Moderate Risk Portfolio is 2.06, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (0.71) in the same period.
• Compared with SPY (0.42) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside risk / excess return profile of 0.95 is higher, thus better.

Ulcer:

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

• The Downside risk index over 5 years of Moderate Risk Portfolio is 2.66 , which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (9.33 ) in the same period.
• During the last 3 years, the Downside risk index is 2.78 , which is smaller, thus better than the value of 10 from the benchmark.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown is defined as the peak-to-trough decline of an investment during a specific period. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the peak value. The maximum drawdown can be calculated based on absolute returns, in order to identify strategies that suffer less during market downturns, such as low-volatility strategies. However, the maximum drawdown can also be calculated based on returns relative to a benchmark index, for identifying strategies that show steady outperformance over time.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (-33.7 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum DrawDown of -14.3 days of Moderate Risk Portfolio is greater, thus better.
• During the last 3 years, the maximum DrawDown is -9.5 days, which is higher, thus better than the value of -24.5 days from the benchmark.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

• The maximum time in days below previous high water mark over 5 years of Moderate Risk Portfolio is 256 days, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (488 days) in the same period.
• During the last 3 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark is 256 days, which is lower, thus better than the value of 488 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (123 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average days under water of 44 days of Moderate Risk Portfolio is lower, thus better.
• Looking at average days below previous high in of 60 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to SPY (179 days).