Bond ETF Rotation Strategy

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

• The total return, or increase in value over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is 46.5%, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (-0.1%) in the same period.
• During the last 3 years, the total return, or increase in value is 7.9%, which is greater, thus better than the value of -10.2% from the benchmark.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

• The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is 7.9%, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (0%) in the same period.
• Looking at annual performance (CAGR) in of 2.6% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to AGG (-3.5%).

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

• The historical 30 days volatility over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is 8.8%, which is greater, thus worse compared to the benchmark AGG (6.7%) in the same period.
• Looking at 30 days standard deviation in of 5.2% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to AGG (6.8%).

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

• Looking at the downside risk of 6.5% in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark AGG (4.9%)
• Compared with AGG (4.9%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside risk of 3.4% is lower, thus better.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (-0.38) in the period of the last 5 years, the Sharpe Ratio of 0.62 of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is greater, thus better.
• During the last 3 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) is 0.01, which is larger, thus better than the value of -0.89 from the benchmark.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

• The excess return divided by the downside deviation over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is 0.83, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (-0.51) in the same period.
• Compared with AGG (-1.24) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside risk / excess return profile of 0.02 is larger, thus better.

Ulcer:

'The ulcer index is a stock market risk measure or technical analysis indicator devised by Peter Martin in 1987, and published by him and Byron McCann in their 1989 book The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds. It's designed as a measure of volatility, but only volatility in the downward direction, i.e. the amount of drawdown or retracement occurring over a period. Other volatility measures like standard deviation treat up and down movement equally, but a trader doesn't mind upward movement, it's the downside that causes stress and stomach ulcers that the index's name suggests.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (8.6 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Downside risk index of 3.07 of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is smaller, thus better.
• Compared with AGG (10 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Ulcer Ratio of 2.13 is lower, thus better.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (-18.4 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum reduction from previous high of -21.4 days of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is lower, thus worse.
• Looking at maximum drop from peak to valley in of -4.9 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to AGG (-17.8 days).

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

• Looking at the maximum days under water of 217 days in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (934 days)
• Compared with AGG (683 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 217 days is lower, thus better.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

• The average time in days below previous high water mark over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is 60 days, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (375 days) in the same period.
• Compared with AGG (317 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average days under water of 57 days is smaller, thus better.