Description

This is a very aggressive strategy that invests in the top performers across a selection of crypto, equity, treasury and precious metal assets with similar volatility characteristics. These asset classes are represented by Bitcoin, Ethereum, SPXL, TMF and AGQ. Twice each month, the strategy ranks these assets using our Modified Sharpe Ratio and invests 50% of the portfolio in each of the top two performers.

Due to the nature of crypto currency and leveraged ETFs, investors should be prepared for large swings up and down.

Here are some of the possible market scenarios this strategy is designed take advantage of:

  • Ethereum is performing well but Bitcoin is under-performing. The strategy can invest 50% in Ethereum and 50% in SPXL.
  • A prolonged crypto bear market. The strategy can shift to 50% in SPXL and 50% in TMF.
  • Cryptos are outperforming other asset classes. The strategy could invest fully in crypto assets by allocating 50% to Bitcoin and 50% to Ethereum.

Twice Monthly Rebalancing

The strategy rebalances on the 1st and 16th of each month which provides a balance between a very active daily or weekly rebalancing, that can cause whipsaws, and a monthly rebalancing that may be too slow considering how fast the crypto markets move. The twice-monthly frequency is simple to execute, avoids whipsaws but can still react to shifting market trends.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark BTC-USD (811.6%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or increase in value of 1086.4% of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is larger, thus better.
  • Compared with BTC-USD (53.9%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return, or increase in value of 6.1% is lower, thus worse.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the annual return (CAGR) of 64.1% in the last 5 years of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark BTC-USD (55.6%)
  • Looking at annual return (CAGR) in of 2% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to BTC-USD (15.5%).

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The volatility over 5 years of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is 57.6%, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark BTC-USD (67.6%) in the same period.
  • Looking at historical 30 days volatility in of 46% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to BTC-USD (60.1%).

DownVol:

'Downside risk is the financial risk associated with losses. That is, it is the risk of the actual return being below the expected return, or the uncertainty about the magnitude of that difference. Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark BTC-USD (46%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside volatility of 38.1% of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is smaller, thus better.
  • Looking at downside risk in of 31.5% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to BTC-USD (41.3%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark BTC-USD (0.79) in the period of the last 5 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 1.07 of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is larger, thus better.
  • Compared with BTC-USD (0.22) in the period of the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of -0.01 is lower, thus worse.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark BTC-USD (1.15) in the period of the last 5 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 1.62 of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is greater, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the downside risk / excess return profile is -0.02, which is smaller, thus worse than the value of 0.31 from the benchmark.

Ulcer:

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark BTC-USD (43 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Ulcer Index of 33 of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is lower, thus better.
  • Looking at Ulcer Index in of 39 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to BTC-USD (49 ).

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The maximum DrawDown over 5 years of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is -64.7 days, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark BTC-USD (-76.6 days) in the same period.
  • Compared with BTC-USD (-76.6 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum DrawDown of -64.7 days is larger, thus better.

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the maximum days under water of 634 days in the last 5 years of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark BTC-USD (580 days)
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum days under water is 634 days, which is greater, thus worse than the value of 580 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the average time in days below previous high water mark of 206 days in the last 5 years of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark BTC-USD (195 days)
  • During the last 3 years, the average days below previous high is 274 days, which is higher, thus worse than the value of 232 days from the benchmark.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.